EXP-009 — Connors RSI(2) 5-minute cost and slippage confirmation experiment
- Run date: 2026-09-04
- Review model:
gpt-5.6-luna / high
| generated_at | 2026-09-04T00:00:00+09:00 |
- Status: confirmation experiment complete · not a strategy promotion
- Purpose: separate the effects of per-product costs and slippage on the 5-minute results of EXP-006/007.
- Capital: initial 3,000,000 KRW per symbol and variant, reinvesting 95% of cash just before entry, integer quantities, no leverage
Data audit
| Symbol | Input | Bars | Sessions | Start | End | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A005930 | [original local path withheld] | 96,142 | 1,250 | 2021-07-16T09:05:00+09:00 | 2026-08-26T15:30:00+09:00 | 671f67506d52a6fd77da5b8a5ce7506bb81b83bcb08407c192eaf32966c62fbe |
A069500 | [original local path withheld] | 96,134 | 1,250 | 2021-07-16T09:05:00+09:00 | 2026-08-26T15:30:00+09:00 | 1c910ee52d9e19a3113833ff33cc1e8d93de7ed650f732cfc74108cfe3e73032 |
The 5-minute input is the same CREON source as the existing EXP-006/007. Daily results were not included in this experiment.
Cost contract
| Profile | One-way commission | One-way slippage | Per-product taxes | Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
zero | 0.0bp | 0.0bp | None | 0bp cost diagnostic line |
actual_proxy | 1.5bp | 0.0bp | A005930 KOSPI schedule | One-way commission 1.5bp + per-product taxes |
actual_proxy_slip1 | 1.5bp | 1.0bp | A005930 KOSPI schedule | Provisional actual cost + 1bp one-way slippage |
actual_proxy_slip2 | 1.5bp | 2.0bp | A005930 KOSPI schedule | Provisional actual cost + 2bp one-way slippage |
actual_proxy_slip5 | 1.5bp | 5.0bp | A005930 KOSPI schedule | Provisional actual cost + 5bp one-way slippage |
The 1.5bp/one-way commission in actual_proxy is a provisional value before checking actual CREON account fills. Slippage of 1/2/5bp is a sensitivity range, not a forecast, and the best value of any one range is not adopted.
Locked OOS results
Locked OOS is 2025-01-01~2026-08-26; each run ran continuously from 2021-07-16, and the period return was computed from the NAV just before the OOS start.
| Symbol | Variant | Cost | OOS trades | OOS starting NAV | OOS ending NAV | OOS return | Full MDD | OOS win rate | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A005930 | A0-baseline | actual_proxy | 416 | 751,652 KRW | 422,687 KRW | -43.77% | -85.95% | 43.3% | 0.194 |
A005930 | A0-baseline | actual_proxy_slip1 | 416 | 663,228 KRW | 347,967 KRW | -47.53% | -88.44% | 38.9% | 0.163 |
A005930 | A0-baseline | actual_proxy_slip2 | 402 | 586,451 KRW | 327,927 KRW | -44.08% | -89.11% | 36.1% | 0.138 |
A005930 | A0-baseline | actual_proxy_slip5 | 314 | 408,328 KRW | 214,561 KRW | -47.45% | -92.88% | 23.6% | 0.077 |
A005930 | A1-stop7 | actual_proxy | 416 | 751,652 KRW | 420,876 KRW | -44.01% | -86.01% | 43.3% | 0.194 |
A005930 | A1-stop7 | actual_proxy_slip1 | 416 | 663,228 KRW | 346,156 KRW | -47.81% | -88.50% | 38.9% | 0.163 |
A005930 | A1-stop7 | actual_proxy_slip2 | 402 | 586,451 KRW | 327,927 KRW | -44.08% | -89.11% | 36.1% | 0.138 |
A005930 | A1-stop7 | actual_proxy_slip5 | 314 | 408,328 KRW | 214,561 KRW | -47.45% | -92.88% | 23.6% | 0.077 |
A005930 | A2-time5bars | actual_proxy | 455 | 565,602 KRW | 288,416 KRW | -49.01% | -90.43% | 37.8% | 0.146 |
A005930 | A2-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip1 | 397 | 488,712 KRW | 248,139 KRW | -49.23% | -91.73% | 29.0% | 0.113 |
A005930 | A2-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip2 | 373 | 423,593 KRW | 223,124 KRW | -47.33% | -92.61% | 27.1% | 0.095 |
A005930 | A2-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip5 | 296 | 282,369 KRW | 156,798 KRW | -44.47% | -94.79% | 17.9% | 0.062 |
A005930 | A3-stop7-time5bars | actual_proxy | 455 | 565,602 KRW | 288,416 KRW | -49.01% | -90.43% | 37.8% | 0.146 |
A005930 | A3-stop7-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip1 | 397 | 488,712 KRW | 248,139 KRW | -49.23% | -91.73% | 29.0% | 0.113 |
A005930 | A3-stop7-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip2 | 373 | 423,593 KRW | 223,124 KRW | -47.33% | -92.61% | 27.1% | 0.095 |
A005930 | A3-stop7-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip5 | 296 | 282,369 KRW | 156,798 KRW | -44.47% | -94.79% | 17.9% | 0.062 |
A005930 | B0-daily-regime | actual_proxy | 631 | 546,700 KRW | 291,625 KRW | -46.66% | -90.46% | 41.0% | 0.229 |
A005930 | B0-daily-regime | actual_proxy_slip1 | 559 | 470,009 KRW | 262,049 KRW | -44.25% | -91.48% | 36.5% | 0.187 |
A005930 | B0-daily-regime | actual_proxy_slip2 | 479 | 402,150 KRW | 236,611 KRW | -41.16% | -92.49% | 32.2% | 0.151 |
A005930 | B0-daily-regime | actual_proxy_slip5 | 311 | 270,934 KRW | 147,798 KRW | -45.45% | -95.08% | 21.2% | 0.073 |
A005930 | B1-daily-regime-day-only | actual_proxy | 579 | 527,387 KRW | 254,933 KRW | -51.66% | -91.61% | 37.5% | 0.187 |
A005930 | B1-daily-regime-day-only | actual_proxy_slip1 | 517 | 453,757 KRW | 242,410 KRW | -46.58% | -92.14% | 32.7% | 0.152 |
A005930 | B1-daily-regime-day-only | actual_proxy_slip2 | 454 | 390,791 KRW | 222,152 KRW | -43.15% | -93.03% | 31.1% | 0.126 |
A005930 | B1-daily-regime-day-only | actual_proxy_slip5 | 312 | 250,257 KRW | 144,927 KRW | -42.09% | -95.19% | 19.2% | 0.062 |
A005930 | B2-daily-regime-five-sessions | actual_proxy | 631 | 546,700 KRW | 291,625 KRW | -46.66% | -90.46% | 41.0% | 0.229 |
A005930 | B2-daily-regime-five-sessions | actual_proxy_slip1 | 559 | 470,009 KRW | 262,049 KRW | -44.25% | -91.48% | 36.5% | 0.187 |
A005930 | B2-daily-regime-five-sessions | actual_proxy_slip2 | 479 | 402,150 KRW | 236,611 KRW | -41.16% | -92.49% | 32.2% | 0.151 |
A005930 | B2-daily-regime-five-sessions | actual_proxy_slip5 | 311 | 270,934 KRW | 147,798 KRW | -45.45% | -95.08% | 21.2% | 0.073 |
A069500 | A0-baseline | actual_proxy | 484 | 2,307,764 KRW | 2,047,244 KRW | -11.29% | -33.40% | 57.4% | 0.744 |
A069500 | A0-baseline | actual_proxy_slip1 | 484 | 2,004,572 KRW | 1,628,099 KRW | -18.78% | -46.25% | 53.3% | 0.608 |
A069500 | A0-baseline | actual_proxy_slip2 | 484 | 1,740,692 KRW | 1,287,780 KRW | -26.02% | -57.42% | 47.7% | 0.488 |
A069500 | A0-baseline | actual_proxy_slip5 | 484 | 1,143,828 KRW | 659,757 KRW | -42.32% | -78.16% | 36.8% | 0.244 |
A069500 | A1-stop7 | actual_proxy | 484 | 2,307,764 KRW | 2,047,244 KRW | -11.29% | -33.40% | 57.4% | 0.744 |
A069500 | A1-stop7 | actual_proxy_slip1 | 484 | 2,004,572 KRW | 1,628,099 KRW | -18.78% | -46.25% | 53.3% | 0.608 |
A069500 | A1-stop7 | actual_proxy_slip2 | 484 | 1,740,692 KRW | 1,287,780 KRW | -26.02% | -57.42% | 47.7% | 0.488 |
A069500 | A1-stop7 | actual_proxy_slip5 | 484 | 1,143,828 KRW | 659,757 KRW | -42.32% | -78.16% | 36.8% | 0.244 |
A069500 | A2-time5bars | actual_proxy | 562 | 2,263,273 KRW | 1,912,272 KRW | -15.51% | -41.24% | 52.1% | 0.700 |
A069500 | A2-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip1 | 562 | 1,927,169 KRW | 1,476,296 KRW | -23.40% | -54.03% | 48.9% | 0.554 |
A069500 | A2-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip2 | 562 | 1,643,791 KRW | 1,131,125 KRW | -31.19% | -64.12% | 43.8% | 0.429 |
A069500 | A2-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip5 | 562 | 1,017,951 KRW | 511,125 KRW | -49.79% | -83.02% | 32.4% | 0.188 |
A069500 | A3-stop7-time5bars | actual_proxy | 562 | 2,263,273 KRW | 1,912,272 KRW | -15.51% | -41.24% | 52.1% | 0.700 |
A069500 | A3-stop7-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip1 | 562 | 1,927,169 KRW | 1,476,296 KRW | -23.40% | -54.03% | 48.9% | 0.554 |
A069500 | A3-stop7-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip2 | 562 | 1,643,791 KRW | 1,131,125 KRW | -31.19% | -64.12% | 43.8% | 0.429 |
A069500 | A3-stop7-time5bars | actual_proxy_slip5 | 562 | 1,017,951 KRW | 511,125 KRW | -49.79% | -83.02% | 32.4% | 0.188 |
A069500 | B0-daily-regime | actual_proxy | 703 | 2,132,171 KRW | 1,936,660 KRW | -9.17% | -42.09% | 57.6% | 0.803 |
A069500 | B0-daily-regime | actual_proxy_slip1 | 703 | 1,831,532 KRW | 1,454,134 KRW | -20.61% | -53.77% | 55.2% | 0.679 |
A069500 | B0-daily-regime | actual_proxy_slip2 | 703 | 1,570,319 KRW | 1,109,519 KRW | -29.34% | -63.71% | 50.8% | 0.566 |
A069500 | B0-daily-regime | actual_proxy_slip5 | 703 | 994,326 KRW | 482,434 KRW | -51.48% | -84.17% | 41.8% | 0.299 |
A069500 | B1-daily-regime-day-only | actual_proxy | 726 | 2,080,151 KRW | 1,652,609 KRW | -20.55% | -46.84% | 56.3% | 0.720 |
A069500 | B1-daily-regime-day-only | actual_proxy_slip1 | 726 | 1,776,752 KRW | 1,237,960 KRW | -30.32% | -59.68% | 53.6% | 0.593 |
A069500 | B1-daily-regime-day-only | actual_proxy_slip2 | 726 | 1,516,250 KRW | 923,685 KRW | -39.08% | -69.78% | 49.3% | 0.476 |
A069500 | B1-daily-regime-day-only | actual_proxy_slip5 | 726 | 942,131 KRW | 401,596 KRW | -57.37% | -86.80% | 39.5% | 0.226 |
A069500 | B2-daily-regime-five-sessions | actual_proxy | 703 | 2,132,171 KRW | 1,936,660 KRW | -9.17% | -42.09% | 57.6% | 0.803 |
A069500 | B2-daily-regime-five-sessions | actual_proxy_slip1 | 703 | 1,831,532 KRW | 1,454,134 KRW | -20.61% | -53.77% | 55.2% | 0.679 |
A069500 | B2-daily-regime-five-sessions | actual_proxy_slip2 | 703 | 1,570,319 KRW | 1,109,519 KRW | -29.34% | -63.71% | 50.8% | 0.566 |
A069500 | B2-daily-regime-five-sessions | actual_proxy_slip5 | 703 | 994,326 KRW | 482,434 KRW | -51.48% | -84.17% | 41.8% | 0.299 |
Review insights
- Under
actual_proxy, 0 of 14 cells are positive, and the mean OOS return is -30.23%. - At 2bp one-way slippage, 0 of 14 cells are positive, and the mean OOS return is -37.18%.
- 5-minute bars are not simply a scaled-down daily RSI(2) strategy. On 5-minute bars, RSI(2), SMA(200) and the 5-bar exit carry the economic meaning of about 10 minutes, 2.5 trading days and 25 minutes respectively.
- Because tracks A/B and costs/slippage were separated, it can be checked whether a result survives only under one particular execution assumption.
- Two symbols and about 5 years of intraday bars alone do not promote a live-trading candidate. Positive OOS cells are only subjects for the next stage's review of year, time-of-day and trade concentration.
Charts
Locked OOS cost and slippage comparison for the main variants
Baseline-cost equity curves by product
Reproducibility
- Run script:
scripts/backtest/run_connors_rsi2_m5_confirmation.py - Summary ledger:
reports/ledgers/EXP-009-summary.csv - Trade ledgers:
reports/ledgers/EXP-009-m5-*-trades.csv - Existing EXP-005/006/007 results were not overwritten.
- Original 5-minute CSVs and private material are not included in Git.
Source and migration evidence
Source: reports/experiments/EXP-009-connors-rsi2-m5-confirmation.md
Original SHA-256: a2713ca6718228c6203f21eb01853fb59c0229ffc5125f345cca17b9b15b425b
Raw data and account information are not part of the public package. The original results do not replace statistical or scientific revalidation. The English text is a translation; numbers, tables and charts are carried over unchanged.